Prognostic and Prediction Tools in Bladder Cancer: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature.

CONTEXT This review focuses on risk assessment and prediction tools for bladder cancer (BCa). OBJECTIVE To review the current knowledge on risk assessment and prediction tools to enhance clinical decision making and counseling of patients with BCa. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION A literature search in English was performed using PubMed in July 2013. Relevant risk assessment and prediction tools for BCa were selected. More than 1600 publications were retrieved. Special attention was given to studies that investigated the clinical benefit of a prediction tool. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS Most prediction tools for BCa focus on the prediction of disease recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer or disease recurrence and survival after radical cystectomy. Although these tools are helpful, recent prediction tools aim to address a specific clinical problem, such as the prediction of organ-confined disease and lymph node metastasis to help identify patients who might benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Although a large number of prediction tools have been reported in recent years, many of them lack external validation. Few studies have investigated the clinical utility of any given model as measured by its ability to improve clinical decision making. There is a need for novel biomarkers to improve the accuracy and utility of prediction tools for BCa. CONCLUSIONS Decision tools hold the promise of facilitating the shared decision process, potentially improving clinical outcomes for BCa patients. Prediction models need external validation and assessment of clinical utility before they can be incorporated into routine clinical care. PATIENT SUMMARY We looked at models that aim to predict outcomes for patients with bladder cancer (BCa). We found a large number of prediction models that hold the promise of facilitating treatment decisions for patients with BCa. However, many models are missing confirmation in a different patient cohort, and only a few studies have tested the clinical utility of any given model as measured by its ability to improve clinical decision making.